Did the Capitol riot make the belief in American democratic decline mainstream?
From “The Daily” newsletter: One big idea on the news, from the team that brings you “The Daily” podcast.
The idea that America is in decline isn’t new.
For decades, academics have warned that partisan gridlock, politicized courts and unfettered lobbying were like dangerous substances — if taken in excess, America’s democratic systems were at risk of collapse.
But what happens when the idea itself gets mainlined? When words like “died,” “decline” and “dagger” sit near “America” on front pages across the country? When a majority of the American public rewrites the story they tell themselves about their country’s standing in the world?
That’s what some experts say is happening now — that the Capitol riot and its aftermath have normalized a sense among Americans that the country, its economic system and its standing in the world are in decline. New data supports this claim: 70 percent of Americans believe the U.S. is “in crisis and at risk of failing,” according to a recent poll.
Fortifying America’s democracy is not just about ensuring the trustworthiness of elections, but also about safeguarding Americans’ belief in the possibility of change. So what happens when that self-conception falters — when Americans begin to believe their country isn’t winning, but instead is losing a long battle?
A fractured collective narrative at home
“Jan. 6 and then the Republican reaction is a really important turning point in the perception of American decline,” said Francis Fukuyama, a political scientist and author. Mr. Fukuyama noted that while he had been writing about American political decay for years, the concept had assumed more systemic import after the Capitol riots — and wider acceptance.
Just a few years ago, a majority of Americans believed the U.S. was one of the greatest nations in the world. In a Pew Research survey from 2017, 85 percent of respondents said either that the U.S. “stands above all other countries in the world” or that it is “one of the greatest countries, along with some others.” Additionally, 58 percent of those surveyed said the American democracy was working “somewhat” or “very well.”
“Prior to the rise of all this populism,” Mr. Fukuyama said, “there was a basic progressive narrative to American history. And that was based on a Declaration of Independence and a Constitution that were flexible enough to be modified over time to be made more inclusive.”
“This American narrative that has held us together, it doesn’t hold anymore,” he said, adding that the riot, “more than anything that happened during the Trump presidency, I think does underline that.”
Now, nearly two-thirds of respondents in the NPR/Ipsos poll agreed that U.S. democracy is “more at risk” now than it was a year ago. Among Republicans, that number climbs to four in five. This narrative persists on both sides of the political spectrum — with each side pointing the finger at the other as a threat to the nation’s well-being. It’s also a narrative that has direct effects on American democracy — polarizing partisanship on national and local levels, affecting critical legislative functions like passing budgets and limiting social consensus-building in response to crises like Covid.
In light of these varied crises, “what is most striking is not what has changed but what has not,” Peter Baker, The Times’s chief White House correspondent, wrote on the anniversary of the Capitol Riots. “America has not come together to defend its democracy; it has only split further apart.”
It is this growing chasm that some political theorists say will be most difficult to reconcile in the interest of shoring up America’s democratic institutions.
“We have two Americas,” James Morone, a professor of political science at Brown University, said, with Americans in urban centers experiencing the benefits of globalization while many in rural areas feel left behind as the American middle class shrinks. These two Americas also often inhabit opposing factual realities, allowing misinformation to persist and even fuel violence. “And here’s the thing: Each is represented by a different party. That’s one reason the two-party system is breaking down.”
Rippling effects abroad
This national self-doubt also has implications for the perception of American strength and supremacy globally, a challenge for President Biden’s foreign policy as his administration struggles to win back the global repute thrown into question by four years of “America First.”
In his address at the Capitol on Jan. 6, Mr. Biden said, “Both at home and abroad, we’re engaged anew in a struggle between democracy and autocracy.”
Donald J. Trump and his allies continue to push a false retelling of the 2020 election, in which Democrats stole the vote and the Jan. 6 riot to disrupt President Biden’s certification was largely peaceful or was staged by Mr. Trump’s opponents. This approach is part of a broader transformation of authoritarian tactics globally, as Max Fisher, the Interpreter columnist at The Times, points out.
“Dictators have shifted emphasis from blunt-force repression (although this still happens, too) to subtler methods like manipulating information or sowing division, aimed at preventing dissent over suppressing it,” he wrote. Now, history is being rewritten in Russia, Hungary and China, where governments are repressing and sanitizing elements of national history in favor of contemporary politics — as is also happening in the United States.
This tactical similarity with foreign autocrats, some experts argue, throws American ideals into question internationally. “If crucial facts can be denied by a major American party and millions of American citizens, aren’t all American claims to truth and rationality suspect?” said Robert Daly, director of the Kissinger Institute on China.
“For as long as I can remember, U.S. democracy, even with its flaws, was held up as the gold standard of democracy worldwide,” said Cynthia Arnson, director of the Latin America program at the Wilson Center. Now, according to a Pew Research survey, a median of just 17 percent of respondents said democracy in the U.S. is a good example for others to follow.
America still benefits from some positive reputational assessments around the world, with a majority of respondents to the Pew survey expressing favorable opinions on America’s technology, its military and its entertainment output. But some experts argue those sources of soft power are also under threat in conjunction with democratic backsliding.
“One of the side effects of losing the democracy is losing control over the markets,” Rebecca Henderson, a professor at Harvard Business School, said, adding, “I think it’s an incredibly dangerous moment. I think we absolutely could lose the democracy.”
Contextualizing Jan. 6: American democratic backsliding is a concept that can seem totalizing. So to break it down, here’s a playlist to help you understand how we got here.
Did podcasts help incite the mob?
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By Stuart A. Thompson
Political podcasts played a major role in promoting lies and misinformation about the 2020 U.S. presidential election, which later fueled the deadly protests on Jan. 6, according to a study by the Brookings Institution that analyzed nearly 1,500 episodes from the 20 most popular political shows on Apple’s podcast app.
None of the predictions of widespread voter fraud came true. But some podcasters frequently advanced the false belief that the election was illegitimate, first as a trickle before the election and then as a tsunami in the weeks leading up to the violent attack at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, according to new research.
The report is the first data-driven look at how political podcasts played a role in shaping theories of electoral fraud. You can read more here:
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FAQs
When did America start to decline?
According to American public intellectual Noam Chomsky, America’s decline started shortly after the end of World War II, with the “loss of China” followed by the Indochina Wars. By 1970, the United States’ share of world wealth had declined to about 25%, which was still large but sharply reduced.
Is the US economy in decline?
The U.S. economy shrank in the last three months by 0.9%. This is the second consecutive quarter where the economy has contracted. In the first quarter, GDP, or gross domestic product, decreased at an annual rate of 1.6%
Will US lose its superpower status?
A report by the National Intelligence Council predicts that the United States will lose its superpower status by 2030, but that no country — including China — will be a hegemonic power
How old did America turn today?
245 years old
Part of a video titled Will America Fall Like Rome? – YouTube
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Is China the next superpower?
Beijing: China seeks to become the world’s next superpower, dethroning the United States and tearing apart the rules-based international system that American and its allies have built since the end of World War 2, according to a report published in The National Interest.
Are we going into a recession 2022?
The nation’s GDP fell 1.6 percent on an annualized basis in first quarter 2022 and was followed by a 0.9 percent drop in the second quarter. However, we find that most indicators?particularly those measuring labor markets?provide strong evidence that the U.S. economy did not fall into a recession in the first quarter.
How in debt is America?
The $30 trillion gross federal debt equals debt held by the public plus debt held by federal trust funds and other government accounts. In very basic terms, this can be thought of as debt that the government owes to others plus debt that it owes to itself. Learn more about different ways to measure our national debt.
Who will rule the world in 2050?
1. China. And, to one’s surprise, China will be the most powerful economy in the world in 2050. But this did not take PwC to come up with this conclusion.
Who lived in the US first?
Up until the 1970s, these first Americans had a name: the Clovis peoples. They get their name from an ancient settlement discovered near Clovis, New Mexico, dated to over 11,000 years ago. And DNA suggests they are the direct ancestors of nearly 80 percent of all indigenous people in the Americas.
Who first came to America?
Five hundred years before Columbus, a daring band of Vikings led by Leif Eriksson set foot in North America and established a settlement. And long before that, some scholars say, the Americas seem to have been visited by seafaring travelers from China, and possibly by visitors from Africa and even Ice Age Europe.
Who named the America?
The LOC.GOV Wise Guide : How Did America Get Its Name? America is named after Amerigo Vespucci, the Italian explorer who set forth the then revolutionary concept that the lands that Christopher Columbus sailed to in 1492 were part of a separate continent.
Who actually discovered America?
Explorer Christopher Columbus (1451?1506) is known for his 1492 ‘discovery’ of the New World of the Americas on board his ship Santa Maria.
What was US called before 1776?
On September 9, 1776, the Continental Congress formally declares the name of the new nation to be the ?United States? of America. This replaced the term ?United Colonies,? which had been in general use.
What was America before 1492?
Before 1492, modern-day Mexico, most of Central America, and the southwestern United States comprised an area now known as Meso or Middle America.
Which state is most like England?
New Hampshire, most have said how much it is like England, U.K. and how comfortable they were there in N.H.
Which English accent is best?
British accent has been rated as the most attractive English accent in the world, according to a new survey by the CEOWORLD magazine. The results were revealed in a global study, which questioned 96,398 people across 32 countries worldwide to list ?most attractive English accents? other than their own.
Who speaks the clearest English?
The Netherlands has emerged as the nation with the highest English language proficiency, according to the EF English Proficiency Index, with a score of 72. It is ahead of five other northern European nations at the top of the chart.
What is the most loved accent?
Accordingly, we asked people what the most and least pleasant accent to listen to is. Overwhelmingly, people like the Southern accent best, followed by British and Australian accents. Southern accents tend to be thought of as friendly and welcoming, while British and Australian accents are more exotic.
Is America in Decline? – Harvard Business Review
Is America in Decline? Strange as it may seem, a nation once celebrated for its irrepressible optimism now appears to be obsessed by decline. America’s list of complaints seems endless: Real wages are falling. Productivity growth is down. Companies aren’t competitive in global markets. White-collar jobs are no longer secure. The nation’s infrastructure is collapsing. The federal deficit is soaring. The health system is deteriorating. The cities are unsafe. The schools are failing. The gap between rich and poor is widening. So pervasive is this preoccupation with decline that it has given birth to its own school of thought. Call it “declinism”—the idea that something is fundamentally wrong with the U.S. economy and until it is fixed, America will neither compete effectively in global markets nor provide an adequate standard of living for its citizens. Why all this concern about decline? One straightforward possibility is that it is an accurate reflection of economic reality. The British, after all, earned a reputation for self-deprecation only after that country’s relative economic decline was well established. But there is another explanation, more complicated but ultimately more accurate. Declinism may be less the product of actual decline than a response to rapid economic and social change. Change is always disturbing and often perceived negatively, for the simple reason that losers tend to be more vocal than winners. But the changing terms of global competition also represent a particular crisis for the institutions of American society—companies, government, educational institutions, and the like. The books and reports collected here all shed light on the debate about decline. Some are classic declinist texts that catalogue the supposed weaknesses of the U.S. economy and of American society in general. Others dispute the very idea of U.S. economic decline and present a far more optimistic view of the economy and its prospects. However, none of them fully grasps the real challenges facing U.S. society as it comes to terms with new economic and social realities. Taken together, these texts suggest that while the popularity of declinist writings says something important about contemporary America, it is not exactly what most declinist authors think. These authors fail to grasp the true significance of the debate about decline. Competing Economies: America, Europe, and the Pacific Rim, a report from the Office of Technology Assessment (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, October 1991). Building a Competitive America, the first annual report of the Competitiveness Policy Council (Washington, D.C., March 1992). Head to Head: The Coming Economic Battle Among Japan, Europe, and America, Lester Thurow (New York: William Morrow, 1992). America: What Went Wrong? Donald L. Barlett and James B. Steele (Kansas City: Andrews and McMeel, 1992). The Seven Fat Years: And How to Do It Again, Robert L. Bartley (New York: The Free Press, 1992). From the Ground Up: The Resurgence of American Entrepreneurship, John Case (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1992). Thinking for a Living: Education and the Wealth of Nations, Ray Marshall and Marc Tucker (New York: Basic Books, 1992). 1. The real issue isn’t decline so much as increased equality among advanced industrial nations. During the postwar era (and, indeed, for much of this century), U.S. companies dominated the world economy. However advantageous to Americans, eventually that situation was bound to end. Concerns about decline are a symptom of the growing equality among industrialized nations rather than a reflection of any fundamental problem with the U.S. economy itself. 2. The real issue isn’t decline so much as increased social inequality at home. Another important characteristic of the postwar U.S. economy was the relatively broad distribution at home of the fruits of global economic dominance. This fortuitous combination of easy economic growth and widespread social equality seemed tailor-made to fulfill the promise of the American dream. But the very economic changes that have led to increased equality among industrial nations have also served to increase social inequality within American society. Much of the concern about U.S. economic decline is really concern about the socioeconomic implications of increased social inequality. 3. The real…
American decline – Wikipedia
American decline American decline is the idea that the United States of America is diminishing in power geopolitically, militarily, financially, economically, demographically, socially, morally, spiritually, culturally, in matters of healthcare, and/or on environmental issues.[1][2][3] There has been debate over the extent of the decline, and whether it is relative or absolute. Those who believe America is in decline are declinists.[4][5] China challenging the United States for global dominance constitutes a core issue in the debate over American decline.[6][7][8] For instance, the United States is no longer an uncontested superpower in every region of the world.[9][10] According to the 2021 Asia Power Index, within Asia, the United States still takes the lead on military capacity, cultural influence, resilience, future resources, diplomatic influence, and defense networks, but falls behind China in two parameters: economic capability and economic relationships.[11] Shrinking military advantages, deficit spending, geopolitical overreach, and a shift in moral, social, and behavioral conditions have been associated with American decline. Some scholars say that the perception of decline, or declinism, has long been part of American culture.[12][13] In a 2021 poll of 1,019 Americans, 79% of those surveyed said that America is “falling apart”.[14][15][16][17] Assessment[edit] According to American public intellectual Noam Chomsky, America’s decline started shortly after the end of World War II, with the “loss of China” followed by the Indochina Wars. By 1970, the United States’ share of world wealth had declined to about 25%, which was still large but sharply reduced.[18] Chomsky dismisses the “remarkable rhetoric of the several years of triumphalism in the 1990s” as “mostly self-delusion”. However, Chomsky argued in 2011 that power will not shift to China and India, because these are poor countries with severe internal problems, and there will be no competitor for global hegemonic power in the foreseeable future.[18] According to Jeet Heer, U.S. hegemony has always been supported by three pillars: “economic strength, military might, and the soft power of cultural dominance.”[19] According to American diplomat Eric S. Edelman, the declinists, or those who believe America is in decline, have been “consistently wrong” in the past.[5] However, American political scientist Aaron Friedberg cautioned that just because the declinists were wrong in the past does not mean they will be incorrect in their future predictions, and that some of the arguments by the declinists deserve to be taken seriously.[5][20] Political scientist Matthew Kroenig argues Washington has “followed the same basic, three-step geopolitical plan since 1945. First, the United States built the current, rules-based international system… Second, it welcomed into the club any country that played by the rules, even former adversaries… and third, the U.S. worked with its allies to defend the system from those countries or groups that would challenge it.”[21] Military[edit] According to a 98-page report by National Defense Strategy Commission, “America’s longstanding military advantages have diminished”, and “The country’s strategic margin for error has become distressingly small. Doubts about America’s ability to deter and, if necessary, defeat opponents and honor its global commitments have proliferated.” The report cited “political dysfunction” and “budget caps” as factors restraining the government from keeping pace with threats in what the report described as “a crisis of national security.” The report wrote that, to neutralize American strength, China and Russia were trying to achieve “regional hegemony” and were developing “aggressive military buildups”.[22] In 2018, Air Force General Frank Gorenc said that the United States airpower advantage over Russia…
The Idea of American Decay – The New York Times
The Idea of American DecayDid the Capitol riot make the belief in American democratic decline mainstream?Credit…Al Drago for The New York TimesPublished Jan. 7, 2022Updated Aug. 5, 2022From “The Daily” newsletter: One big idea on the news, from the team that brings you “The Daily” podcast. The idea that America is in decline isn’t new.For decades, academics have warned that partisan gridlock, politicized courts and unfettered lobbying were like dangerous substances — if taken in excess, America’s democratic systems were at risk of collapse.But what happens when the idea itself gets mainlined? When words like “died,” “decline” and “dagger” sit near “America” on front pages across the country? When a majority of the American public rewrites the story they tell themselves about their country’s standing in the world?That’s what some experts say is happening now — that the Capitol riot and its aftermath have normalized a sense among Americans that the country, its economic system and its standing in the world are in decline. New data supports this claim: 70 percent of Americans believe the U.S. is “in crisis and at risk of failing,” according to a recent poll.Fortifying America’s democracy is not just about ensuring the trustworthiness of elections, but also about safeguarding Americans’ belief in the possibility of change. So what happens when that self-conception falters — when Americans begin to believe their country isn’t winning, but instead is losing a long battle?A fractured collective narrative at home“Jan. 6 and then the Republican reaction is a really important turning point in the perception of American decline,” said Francis Fukuyama, a political scientist and author. Mr. Fukuyama noted that while he had been writing about American political decay for years, the concept had assumed more systemic import after the Capitol riots — and wider acceptance.Just a few years ago, a majority of Americans believed the U.S. was one of the greatest nations in the world. In a Pew Research survey from 2017, 85 percent of respondents said either that the U.S. “stands above all other countries in the world” or that it is “one of the greatest countries, along with some others.” Additionally, 58 percent of those surveyed said the American democracy was working “somewhat” or “very well.”“Prior to the rise of all this populism,” Mr. Fukuyama said, “there was a basic progressive narrative to American history. And that was based on a Declaration of Independence and a Constitution that were flexible enough to be modified over time to be made more inclusive.”“This American narrative that has held us together, it doesn’t hold anymore,” he said, adding that the riot, “more than anything that happened during the Trump presidency, I think does underline that.”Now, nearly two-thirds of respondents in the NPR/Ipsos poll agreed that U.S. democracy is “more at risk” now than it was a year ago. Among Republicans, that number climbs to four in five. This narrative persists on both sides of the political spectrum — with each side pointing the finger at the other as a threat to the nation’s well-being. It’s also a narrative that has direct effects on American democracy — polarizing partisanship on national and local levels, affecting…
How America Could Fall Like Rome
What America's Great Unwinding Would Mean for the World
What America’s Great Unwinding Would Mean for the WorldUpdated at 10:40 a.m. ET on August 12, 2022A peculiar cognitive dissonance seems to have taken hold in the world. The Western response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—led and propped up by the United States—has reminded the world that the international order is, if anything, more dependent on American military, economic, and financial might now than only a few years ago. Yet everywhere you turn, there is a sense that the U.S. is in some form of terminal decline; too divided, incoherent, violent, and dysfunctional to sustain its Pax Americana. Moscow and Beijing seem to think that the great American unwinding has already begun, while in Europe, officials worry about a sudden American collapse. “Do we talk about it?” Michel Duclos, a former French ambassador to Syria who remains well connected within Europe’s diplomatic network, told me, somewhat indignantly, after I asked whether an American implosion was ever discussed at the highest levels of government. “We never stop talking about it.”Again and again, when I spoke with officials, diplomats, politicians, and aides in Britain and Europe over the past few weeks, the same message came back. “It’s weighing on people’s minds, big time,” one senior European Union official told me, speaking, like most of those I interviewed, on condition of anonymity to freely discuss their concerns. From outside the U.S., many now see in America only relentless mass shootings, political dysfunction, social division, and the looming presence of Donald Trump. All of this seems to add up in the collective imagination to an impression of a country on the brink, meeting all the conditions for a descent into civil unrest.Read: Why Britain changed its China stanceMany Europeans have long considered American decline an inevitability and have looked to prepare themselves for such an eventuality. Pushed by Germany and France, the EU has sought out trade and energy deals with rival global powers, including Russia and China. The idea was that as the U.S. disengaged from Europe, the EU would step up.But then Russia invaded Ukraine, and everything changed. Suddenly, Europe’s grand strategy was in tatters, and American strength seemed to reassert itself. Europe discovered it had not become more independent from the U.S. but more dependent on it. In fact, Europe was dependent on everyone: Russia for its energy, China for its trade, America for its security. In pursuing a slow, cautious disengagement from the U.S., Europe found itself in the worst of all worlds. And in a desperate bid to reverse out of the mess, it was forced to rush back into the arms of the very leviathan it fears might be not only slowly losing its power but in danger of suddenly imploding.This, then, is the difficult situation of America’s protectorates today. Worried about the decline of the U.S., much of the American-led world has clung even more tightly to Washington than before. In Asia, the U.S. remains the only power capable of balancing against China’s bid for regional hegemony. In Europe, something similar is true with regard to Russia. To the continent’s eternal shame, as one senior British official told me, the apparently divided, dysfunctional, and declining power of the U.S. has still managed to send drastically more lethal aid to save a European democracy than any other NATO power.Such is America’s continuing dominance, in fact, that the world’s fixation on the idea of its impending demise seems both a dramatic overreaction and a dramatic underreaction. The depth of America’s military-industrial complex and the scale of its imperial bureaucracy mean that they are simply too heavy for a single president or Congress to remove in one go. To an extraordinary degree, American power has been vaccinated against its own political dysfunction, as Trump’s time in office showed.And yet the very weight of this Pax Americana means that if…
The Decline of the American World – The Atlantic
The Decline of the American World“He hated America very deeply,” John le Carré wrote of his fictional Soviet mole, Bill Haydon, in Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy. Haydon had just been unmasked as a double agent at the heart of Britain’s secret service, one whose treachery was motivated by animus, not so much to England but to America. “It’s an aesthetic judgment as much as anything,” Haydon explained, before hastily adding: “Partly a moral one, of course.”I thought of this as I watched the scenes of protest and violence over the killing of George Floyd spread across the United States and then here in Europe and beyond. The whole thing looked so ugly at first—so full of hate, and violence, and raw, undiluted prejudice against the protesters. The beauty of America seemed to have gone, the optimism and charm and easy informality that entrances so many of us from abroad.At one level, the ugliness of the moment seems a trite observation to make. And yet it gets to the core of the complicated relationship the rest of the world has with America. In Tinker Tailor, Haydon at first attempts to justify his betrayal with a long political apologia, but, in the end, as he and le Carré’s hero, the master spy George Smiley, both know, the politics are just the shell. The real motivation lies underneath: the aesthetic, the instinct. Haydon—upper-class, educated, cultured, European—just could not stand the sight of America. For Haydon and many others like him in the real world, this visceral loathing proved so great that it blinded them to the horrors of the Soviet Union, ones that went far beyond the aesthetic.Le Carré’s reflection on the motivations of anti-Americanism—bound up, as they are, with his own ambivalent feelings about the U.S.—are as relevant today as they were in 1974, when the novel was first published. Where there was then Richard Nixon, there is now Donald Trump, a caricature of what the Haydons of this world already despise: brash, grasping, rich, and in charge. In the president and the first lady, the burning cities and the race divides, the police brutality and the poverty, an image of America is beamed out, confirming the prejudices that much of the world already has—while also serving as a useful device to obscure its own injustices, hypocrisies, racism, and ugliness.Ta-Nehisi Coates: The case for reparationsIt is hard to escape the feeling that this is a uniquely humiliating moment for America. As citizens of the world the United States created, we are accustomed to listening to those who loathe America, admire America, and fear America (sometimes all at the same time). But feeling pity for America? That one is new, even if the schadenfreude is painfully myopic. If it’s the aesthetic that matters, the U.S. today simply doesn’t look like the country that the rest of us should aspire to, envy, or replicate.Even in previous moments of American vulnerability, Washington reigned supreme. Whatever moral or strategic challenge it faced, there was a sense that its political vibrancy matched its economic and military might, that its system and its democratic culture were so deeply rooted that it could always regenerate itself. It was as if the very idea of America mattered, an engine driving it on, whatever other glitches existed under the hood. Now something appears to be changing. America seems mired, its very ability to rebound in question. A new power has emerged on the world stage to challenge American supremacy—China—with a weapon the Soviet Union never possessed: mutually assured economic destruction.China, unlike the Soviet Union, is able to offer a measure of wealth, vibrancy, and technological advancement—albeit not yet to the same level as the United States—while protected by a silk curtain of Western cultural and linguistic incomprehension. In contrast, if America were a family, it would be the Kardashian clan, living its life in the open glare of a gawping, global public—its comings and goings, flaws and contradictions, there for all to see. Today,…
The decline of America – Washington Times
The decline of America OPINION: While inflation, high gas and food prices, a falling stock market, corrosive politics and a looming recession are all causes for concern — even alarm — two recent Gallup polls reveal an erosion of foundational principles that are key to a stable and enduring society. According to Gallup, 50% of those surveyed believe the state of “moral values” in America is “poor.” Thirty-seven percent say they are only “fair.” The trend is not headed in the right direction as 78% think they are getting worse. One doesn’t have to look far to see the reason for this pessimistic outlook. Consider what is being taught (and not taught) in many public schools and universities. The media — social, broadcast, cable and entertainment — mostly focus on the tawdry. It’s “news” that Emma Thompson is doing a nude scene in a film because she wants us to love our bodies. It’s news that Kim Kardashian wore a dress once worn by Marilyn Monroe when she sang “Happy Birthday” to President John F. Kennedy in 1962. Don’t even get me started on the fascination the media have with Harry and Meghan. Things once considered wrong and immoral are now paraded as the opposite and woe to those corporations, institutions and individuals that claim otherwise. Need more examples? There isn’t enough space to list them all, but these few will do: mass shootings in schools and everywhere else; Speaker Nancy Pelosi appearing on “RuPaul’s Drag Race” and remarking, “This is what America is all about”; drag queen story hours at some elementary schools and other actions related to the promotion of the acronym known as LGBTQ-plus; gender identity and fluidity (Facebook’s list of gender categories now totals 58); a library system in Maryland hosting social justice and activism camps for ninth-graders to teach them “how to engage your activism, make connections to your community and develop your passions”; Oregon Gov. Kate Brown signed a “Menstrual Cycle Dignity” bill that requires thousands of new tampon dispensers be placed in boy’s bathrooms; a Washington, D.C., elementary school gave pre-K through third-grade children a lesson on “anti-racism” that asked them to identify racist members of their family. Moral decline — along with massive debt — has contributed to the collapse of great nations in the past. If a foundation is defective, any house built on it will likely experience distress. What makes us think we can escape the judgment of history and avoid a similar fate? A house and its foundation must be maintained. A car must be serviced. A body must be taken care of. So must America. The second Gallup poll found belief in the existence of God has reached a new low. Eighty-one percent of those surveyed said they believe in God, but the number is down six points from a consistent 87% that held that belief between 2013 and 2017. The two polls should be seen as related. When a vacuum is created, pressure builds from the outside to fill it. If growing numbers of people don’t believe in God, they have to believe in something. Without the power to…
Nearly every American has a foreboding the country they love …
Nearly every American has a foreboding the country they love is losing its wayJohn F. Kennedy, a young war hero running in his first congressional campaign, delivered a speech on July 4, 1946, at Faneuil Hall in Boston. It was mostly patriotic bromides about God and country. But it included a haunting meditation on the American soul.“A nation’s character, like that of an individual, is elusive,” Kennedy said. “It is produced partly by things we have done and partly by what has been done to us. It is the result of physical factors, intellectual factors, spiritual factors. … In peace, as in war, we will survive or fail according to its measure.”What does our national portrait look like on this Independence Day? Many of us see an angry, traumatized face, rather than the radiant glow of the Founders. That’s the odd thing about this hyperpartisan moment: Nearly every American, whatever their political perspective, has a foreboding that the country they love is losing its way.How great is the danger of national decline? The Pentagon’s in-house think tank, which has the mysterious name “Office of Net Assessment,” commissioned a study of the problem by Michael J. Mazarr, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp. It was just published, under the title, “The Societal Foundations of National Competitiveness.” It’s hardly upbeat summer reading, but it can be downloaded free online, and it’s well worth the time.Follow David Ignatius’s opinionsFollowMazarr’s disturbing conclusion is that America is losing many of the seven attributes he believes are necessary for competitive success: national ambition and will; unified national identity; shared opportunity; an active state; effective institutions; a learning and adaptive society; and competitive diversity and pluralism.Let’s start with American ambition and confidence, once our most notable trait. “Writers and scholars alike … have argued that the spirit of adventurousness, experimentation and determination to remake the future have all ebbed in the American character,” Mazarr writes.He notes polling that three-quarters of those surveyed in 2019 were unhappy about where the country is headed. A 2018 study reported that more than 60 percent of those polled had “more fear than hope.” And Americans across party lines don’t trust our country’s institutions. A 2018 poll registered only 10 percent who were “very satisfied” with how democracy is working; it also found that two-thirds of respondents agree that “public officials don’t care what I think.”National unity and cohesion are declining, Mazarr believes. A country that was effective (sometimes brutally so) at assimilating diverse groups is more fragmented, and the idea of America as a “melting pot” seems archaic to many people. But our separate identities come at a cost: “A country with a rapidly diversifying population — though it gains competitive advantages from this diversity — will also face greater hurdles to sustaining a sense of coherent national identity,” Mazarr writes.America remains an opportunity society, in principle, but Mazarr sees growing constraints. He cites the evidence of rising inequality. Between 2001 and 2016, the median net worth of the middle class fell 20 percent, and that of the working class plummeted 45 percent. He notes evidence that in each generation since 1945, children have been less likely to make more money than their parents.These problems are obvious, but government hasn’t been willing or able to correct them. Mazarr quotes a World Bank assessment of gradually declining “governance effectiveness” in the United States over the past 20 years. It isn’t just a government problem, though. Private-sector productivity has been stagnant for decades, and corporations struggle with bureaucracy…
Public Sees America's Future in Decline on Many Fronts
Looking to the Future, Public Sees an America in Decline on Many Fronts (Rachel Black/EyeEm/Getty Images) When Americans peer 30 years into the future, they see a country in decline economically, politically and on the world stage. While a narrow majority of the public (56%) say they are at least somewhat optimistic about America’s future, hope gives way to doubt when the focus turns to specific issues. A new Pew Research Center survey focused on what Americans think the United States will be like in 2050 finds that majorities of Americans foresee a country with a burgeoning national debt, a wider gap between the rich and the poor and a workforce threatened by automation. Majorities predict that the economy will be weaker, health care will be less affordable, the condition of the environment will be worse and older Americans will have a harder time making ends meet than they do now. Also predicted: a terrorist attack as bad as or worse than 9/11 sometime over the next 30 years. These grim predictions mirror, in part, the public’s sour mood about the current state of the country. The share of Americans who are dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country – seven-in-ten in January of 2019 – is higher now than at any time in the past year. The view of the U.S. in 2050 that the public sees in its crystal ball includes major changes in the country’s political leadership. Nearly nine-in-ten predict that a woman will be elected president, and roughly two-thirds (65%) say the same about a Hispanic person. And, on a decidedly optimistic note, more than half expect a cure for Alzheimer’s disease by 2050. The public also has a somewhat more positive view – or at least a more benign one – of some current demographic trends that will shape the country’s future. The U.S. Census Bureau predicts that, by 2050, blacks, Hispanics, Asians and other minorities will constitute a majority of the population. About four-in-ten Americans (42%) say this shift will be neither good nor bad for the country while 35% believe a majority-minority population will be a good thing, and 23% say it will be bad. These views differ significantly by race and ethnicity. Whites are about twice as likely as blacks or Hispanics to view this change negatively (28% of whites vs. 13% of blacks and 12% of Hispanics). And, when asked about the consequences of an increasingly diverse America, nearly half of whites (46%) but only a quarter of Hispanics and 18% of blacks say a majority-minority country would weaken American customs and values. The public views another projected change in the demographic contours of America more ominously. By 2050, people ages 65 and older are predicted to outnumber those younger than 18, a change that a 56% majority of all adults say will be bad for the country. In the face of these problems and threats, the majority of Americans have little confidence that the federal government and their elected officials are up to meeting the major challenges that lie ahead. More than eight-in-ten say they are worried about the way the government in Washington works, including 49% who are very worried. A similar share worries about the ability of political leaders to solve the nation’s biggest problems, with 48% saying they are very worried about this. And,…
The reports of American decline are greatly exaggerated
America’s decline is greatly exaggeratedSkip to headerSkip to main contentSkip to footerOpinionThe reports of American decline are greatly exaggeratedAmerica is wealthy, influential, powerful, and increasingly equal. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.April 12, 2022The narrative of American decline gets louder every day. Our parents had it better. Our influence overseas has waned. Our country is poorer and more divided than ever.We say these things, and we mean them in the moment, and our knowledge of history — or lack thereof — allows us to truly believe them. “American decline is the idea that the United States of America is diminishing in power geopolitically, militarily, financially, economically, socially, culturally, in matters of healthcare, and/or on environmental issues,” observes a Wikipedia entry on the idea. “There has been debate over the extent of the decline, and whether it is relative or absolute,” the article adds, but that it is happening is presented nearly as established fact.Our decline is in every journal you can think of, on the left, on the right. It’s on our fine website here at The Week. And the idea has a long and illustrious history: Decline is a sad story many peoples have told themselves.But what if the story is wrong? And what if constantly calling back to the way things never actually were makes it impossible for our own age to live up to our expectations — let alone hopes?When you’re looking for signs of decline, it’s easy to see them everywhere. In our culture wars, one side sees a horrible moral fall from the good old ways, while the other thinks we’re losing the high ground and slipping back into the dark ages. We see decline on the battlefield, pretending we don’t win wars anymore. We say people can’t find good jobs anymore. Our culture is bankrupt! Look, the only movies we can can make anymore are sequels!I don’t want to make light of any person’s suffering. I’ve been out of work; I have felt despair; and I can’t believe that Fast & Furious is still around. But that’s hardly a complete picture.Economically, there’s an incredible imbalance of wealth in this country, yes. But our poverty rates are historically low, and we’ve seen enormous inequality in “better” days. (When John D. Rockefeller walked the earth, he was worth $418 billion, adjusted for inflation — more than $100 billion more than Elon Musk, two Jeffs Bezos, or more than two thirds of the entire federal budget in 1920.) China will overtake the U.S. in the overall size of its economy, but U.S. per capita GDP is more six times that of China and considerably larger than that of other Western nations.As for influence, there’s still no other nation that can rival ours. (Have you ever eaten in the French version of McDonald’s when you’re traveling in Istanbul?) American soft power remains unmatched.Our hard power does, too. The U.S. military did not “win” in Afghanistan because it wasn’t an existential fight. We achieved an initial victory in ousting the Taliban, achieved another in killing Osama bin Laden, lost sight of what winning meant, and then — fairly enough — decided it was time to go home. That’s not a triumph, but it’s also not a defeat, and if our soldiers need to be sent to war to protect the homeland or our allies, they stand ready.Can the United States defend itself from military threats from around the world? No one says no. Can America still project awesome power across oceans and continents? No one says no. Can any other nation in the world do the same at anywhere near the scale of the United States? No.Do we need a stronger military than the one that nearly $800 billion is buying? We can have one. America was not an…